LSU & Auburn square off at 2:30pm on CBS Sports. More often than not over the last decade, the winner of this game has gone on to represent the SEC Western Division in the SEC Championship Game (2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007). This year seems no different. The two Tiger representatives from the SEC West are both undefeated, Top 10 teams, & the winner has far-reaching aspirations on their horizon.
The loser returns to pack, & has to prepare for a stretch run full of land-mines, regrets, & the University of Alabama in Tuscaloosa. One prediction I can confidently make is that the loser of this game is probably not done losing this year.
The storyline of the game pivots around the age-old cliche of the irresistible force that is Cameron Newton versus the immovable objects that pose as the LSU Defense.
The best player in college football through the 1st 7 games versus the #3 defense in America through the 1st 7 games. Gus Malzahn vs. John "Chief" Chavis Gene Chizik vs...well, nevermind.
LSU's offense is quarterbacked by two kids who have had their fair share of ups & downs, but, ironically enough, have had their brightest moments in the Purple & Gold occur against Auburn University.
Jarrett Lee threw a clutch TD pass against a heavy rush at the apex of his 2008 season. From there, it was Pick-6 Purgatory for the young Texan, which landed him on the bench for the final four games of that year, & almost the entire way in 2009.
His replacement, Jordan Jefferson, won 9 games last year, including LSU's most complete performance of the season against Auburn in Tiger Stadium, leading the Purple & Gold to a 31-3 dismantling of the Plainsmen.
Yet this year, the roles have been reversed. Jefferson has regressed significantly since the high of that victory, & Lee has been inserted in each of the last 3 games to provide a desperately needed spark that has been the difference in wins versus Tennessee, Florida, and...McNeese State?
(Sigh)
While Miles doggedly sticks to the quarterback rotation that seemingly wastes possessions when Jefferson's in (averaging a startlingly pathetic 1.88 yards per play on his drives against McNeese State Cowboys this past weekend) & puts even more pressure on a kid whose already been through a ton of it during his tenure in Tiger Town, LSU Fans can at least rest easy that Auburn's secondary has yielded yards & points in vast amounts, no matter if its to your starter, or your backup (I think Arkansas' ballboy just threw for a 1st down, by the way).
It's the other side of the ball that presents the real intrigue of Saturday's clash of the Tigers.
Cameron Newton, Auburn's Junior Quarterback, has lifted the fortunes of Gene Chizik's squad, & at the same time, has proved to make Urban Meyer feel like Captain Ahab, & see Cam as the one that got away. To stray off the subject, does anyone think there'd be any questions, or any heat whatsoever, on either Meyer on Addazio if Cam Newton was still suiting up for the Gators, & not Auburn? Perhaps Joe Paterno was on to something when he recently said, "It's not about the X's & O's, but more the Jimmy's & the Joe's."
Newton is a 6-6, 250+ pound battering ram whose been featured in a rush-oriented attack fueled by Gus Malzahn's fast-paced, up-tempo offense. By judiciously utilizing the pass-game only when necessary or appropriate, Auburn's used Newton's arm & their passing offense with great effect.
Perfect Example: Against Arkansas this past Saturday, Auburn ran 64 plays on offense. Newton threw 14 passes (Auburn threw 15 altogether). That's right at 80/20 run/pass ratio.
(By the way, Auburn Fans, before you guys start hooting too much, remember, in just over 17:00 on the field, Arkansas' backup quarterback threw for 300+ yards & 3 TD's. Yes, you ran 64 plays. But, the Hogs ran 77 on your defense. You may wanna quiet down. Just a tad.)
So, how do you stop a guy that is the league's leading rusher, & far & away its most efficient passer?
Hmm...Well, let's dig in to the stats.
First, we know that Auburn's going to run, run & run the ball some more. Even when they do pass, and you do have their admittedly sub-par receiving corp covered, Newton has averaged over 11 yards per carry on Quarterback Draws. You have to think at least some of those weren't Malzahn calling Newton's number.
So, if Newton doesn't throw it all that much, on the surface, you'd think that sending the extra man-or men-after him on those surprisingly few-and-far-between passing downs would put pressure on the Auburn signal-caller & perhaps force some mistakes with his right arm.
You'd be wrong, too.
According to some great statistical research from ESPN's SEC Blogger Chris Low, when teams send the dog after Newton, he's completing an eye-popping 70% of his passes.
Which means if your heat doesn't get there, & you're covering everyone downfield, he almost relishes being flushed from the pocket & can move the chains, anyway. It also means that if you don't cover, & the heat doesn't get there, he's got the accuracy needed to make you pay there, as well.
The other factor that has to be taken into consideration is the type of player you send after him. Is a nickel or cornerback honestly going to bring a 6-6, 250+ pound quarterback down?
No, in my book, the way to stop Auburn is to stop the run on 1st & 2nd downs, & then playing coverage. The same Chris Low article linked above goes on to talk about the equally interesting statistic that all of Newton's interceptions have come when teams have dropped at least 7 men into coverage.
Which means when teams play contain, & leave Clark Kent in his phone-booth, & play solid coverage outside, the Man Of Steel's typically not going to be able to change into his tights & throw on that cape with the S-on-his-chest.
John Chavis & the LSU stop troops are ideally suited for just such a task. Anchored by lighter-than-normal, yet extremely productive Defensive Tackles in Lezarius "Pep" Levingston & Drake "Cookiemonster" Nevis, LSU has the ability to control the interior of the line of scrimmage, & beat both single & double teams to pressure the pocket up the middle. On the edge, JUCO transfer Ken Adams & Chancey Aghayere have filled in nicely for budding Freshman Superstar Sam Montgomery, who was felled by a season ending knee injury on a low-but-legal block in the Tennessee contest. On the side opposite of those two, RS Freshman Barkevious "KeKe" Mingo (who might have the single best first & last names in the SEC over the next four years) has shown off sprinter speed off the edge, & a surprising tenacity against the run for a 6-5, 240 pound former track-star out of West Monroe, Louisiana.
The Fearsome Front Foursome of LSU has the talent & depth to play disciplined football at the point of attack, & not only control the line of scrimmage, but to pressure the pocket, as well.
Behind it, the Linebackers are ideally suited to spy on a player presenting Newton's unique skill-set. Senior 3 year-starter & 1st Team Pre-Season All-American Mike Linebacker Kelvin Shepperd is turning in a regular season matching his post-season Junior & pre-season Senior accolades. A quick, cerebral player with tenacity, Shepperd is a tackling machine that's absolutely flourished in Chavis' system. In the 2nd year playing the most important position for John Chavis' Defense, Shepperd is quite simply the best linebacker on the best defense in the Conference.
Flanking him are Junior Ryan Baker, who starred for two years as a gunner for LSU's Special Teams before contributing as a backup linebacker last year. Stefan Francois is the other Linebacker, who is a converted Safety & whose main attribute is as a speed merchant who covers a ton of ground & arrives to the ball with a decidedly unpleasant disposition.
Their secondary is much talked about. Brandon Taylor has been outstanding in checking the coverages for the Tiger defensive backfield. He's also shown both great coverage skills in the open field, & a penchant for making outstanding open-field tackles. Karnel Hatcher finally stepped forward out of a mix of players vying for the other Safety spot, & has shown some playmaking ability when challenged, as well.
Both are freed up to roam the secondary by the best cornerback tandem in the conference. Millionaire-in-waiting & early-season Heisman candidate Patrick Peterson gets the Deion treatment on most Saturdays, & allows LSU to play defense with 10 players defending only half the field. With two picks & at least two drops, teams were testing, but have given up hope of completing passes towards Peterson's side of the field.
Opposite of him, true Sophomore Morris Claiborne has been challenged. With 9 passes defended, 5 pass breakups, & 4 interceptions on the season, he's proven up to it, & then some.
In the humble scribe's honest opinion, looking at the stats & tendencies of both Malzahn & Newton, the LSU Defense is the best the Tigers have faced, & the worst matchup they could ask for: A tough, fast unit with playmakers at every position, who don't need to substitute based on down-and-distance in order to find advantages on the field. Pace & up-tempo won't require LSU to change much of their personnel, if at all. Because LSU simply doesn't really need to. Their Top 11, with an occasional insertion of super-freshman nickelback Tyrann Mathieu in obvious passing situations, are the bread-and-butter on defense.
They log a ton of snaps, & are routinely leaned on by LSU's offense, already, so 60 play games aren't anything new for this, defense, either.
Which means LSU has a Front 4 who can play contain & generate pressure. They have Linebackers who can get to the quarterback through the gaps quickly, or spy & cover a ton of territory laterally, very easily. Worst of all, they have corners & safeties who can play tight man or zone behind their outstanding Front 7, & look like a blanket in the process.
Look for LSU to run-blitz more than it blitzes with the pass. When we do send the dog through the gaps, look for the Purple & Gold Tigers to mix up their pressure packages, & utilize the zone blitz with their athletic Defensive Ends. I think you also might see LSU run some zone coverage like Cover 1 with a Robber in the hot lanes, looking for a gotcha to get Cam Newton thinking.
The book here is to stop the run, & then do what-LSU-does on 3rd down. Do that, & Auburn will be brought back down to Earth. A little.
On offense, LSU has to play keep-away, & with the league's leading tailback in Steven Ridley, & a bevy of talented tailbacks to back him up, LSU's ground game will be enough that Auburn has to sell out to stop it. Which puts an already weak War Eagle Secondary (whose hurting even more now that Iron-man-feel-good-story-of-the-year Aairon Savage went down with an injury that requires surgery late against Arkansas on Saturday) in a big hole.
Will it be one that even Jordan Jefferson can lead his version of the dysfunctional LSU Offense through?
Saturday will tell the tale...
Posted by TE
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